I Guess We’re Not All Georgians Anymore

I heard Chuck Todd on MSNBC today saying that Obama will likely not campaign for Jim Martin in his Senate runoff campaign. I can understand that he’s focused on the transition right now, and also that Martin faces an uphill climb. Still, I think it’s a mistake. For one thing, with the Alaska race moving our way and Minnesota still a good possibility, Georgia could end up being the Dems’ shot at 60 seats. Now, given the fluidity of cloture votes, I don’t believe that 60 is the magic number some have made it out to be, but it does represent a psychological hurdle, and besides, a Sen. Martin is a heck of a lot less likely to join a filibuster than Sen. Chambliss.

I also don’t really see what Obama has to lose by getting involved. If Martin loses, that will be what was expected, so Obama will hardly be associated with that loss. On the other hand, if he helps Martin pull off the upset, it will have Republicans shaking in their boots and will serve to validate not only his coattails but also his 50-state strategy. Besides, it’s not like this race is in Mississippi; Obama came within a few points of McCain in Georgia. Nor is Martin running away from Obama; in fact, he seems eager to have him visit.

The Republicans are going all out to crank up their base. Obama is the one guy who can truly help the Democrats turn out theirs. He should go to Georgia.

Senate Runoffs

Partisan considerations aside, it strikes me that two of the remaining contested Senate races seem to have their processes exactly backwards. In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin are heading for a runoff, despite the fact that voters expressed a fairly clear preference for the incumbent. I suppose it’s possible that Chambliss will fail to add 0.1% of the remaining third-party voters in the runoff — and as a Democrat, I hope that happens — but the more likely outcome is that it will prove to be a waste of time and resources that merely confirms the results of the initial round. And in the event that Obama’s victory shakes up the race and allows Martin to win over voters who had supported Chambliss in the first round, suddenly we’re not talking about a runoff so much as a new election.

In Minnesota, meanwhile, you could make a good case that a runoff would be clarifying. Coleman and Franken have effectively tied with 42 percent each, which means that a runoff would allow the 16% of the electorate who voted for someone else the chance to express their second choice. Instead, as happened in Florida in 2000, the election will be decided by a vote margin that will almost certainly be less than the margin of error of even the most accurate counting method.

In the unlikely event that I were ever given the opportunity to write a state constitution, I would probably go with a modified version of the Georgia model. That is, require a runoff if no candidate reaches a certain level of support, but set that threshold below 50 percent, perhaps at 45. That way, runoffs would be reserved for elections in which a third-party candidate garnered significant support, not one in which a few gadflies chipped away enough of the frontrunner’s vote total to keep him or her below a majority.

We’re Not Worthy!

Poor George Bush, forced to preside over a nation of ingrates. If only he could have found another country full of voters who were more appreciative of his efforts.

Here’s to the State of Alaska

Given Alaskan voters’ willingness to send a convicted felon and his pork-filled buddy back to Congress, I’m thinking maybe we should give Todd Palin and his AIP buddies their wish and say, “Good riddance.”

But Was He Able to Win White Suburban Women?

Just kidding. Congratulations to President Obama!

Sarah Palin and the Tsrif Tnemdnema

Shorter Sarah Palin: In order to preserve the First Amendment, the media should be prevented from criticizing government officials.

Hey, McCain: Stop Telegraphing Your Punches!

I realize the McCain campaign is unlikely to ask me for advice, nor would I want them to take it, but imagine for a second that they asked my thoughts on the best way to inject Rev. Wright into the campaign. The first thing I would tell them is don’t do it, since it would look like a transparently desperate gimmick. But if they insisted on it, I would advise them to, as much as possible, keep it under the radar. Rely on robocalls, radio ads, email campaigns and the like. Basically, get the message out to voters but try to avoid alerting the national media. (Of course, I doubt they would be able to pull that off, which takes us back to my first point.)

What I would not advise them to do is loudly hint that they might bring it up, and rationalize it with the transparently bullshit figleaf of John Lewis’ comments. That’s the exact opposite: alerting the national media without actually getting the attack in front of voters. Now, if voters do hear about Wright, it will be via the MSM in the context of a bunch of process stories that emphasize McCain’s desperation and flip-flopping.

I don’t claim any great political wisdom for this insight. All you need to do is notice that they tried the exact same approach with Ayers, and we all know how well that’s worked out.

Paint It, Black

From our friends at Fox News:

McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war, also sloughed off Obama’s endorsment by one of the country’s best known black Republicans and military leaders, Colin Powell, who was President Bush’s first secretary of state.

Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Powell chastised his longtime friend for the type of campaign he has run against Obama, who is black.

A Photoshop Bleg*

I don’t have the time nor the graphic skills to do it, but I’d really love to see a tableau of McCain headshots from last night’s debate roughly mirroring this:

I’ll even spot you the first photo.

* Yes, I hate the term, too. But there really is no good direct synonym.

‘That One’ Has a New Opponent