Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

NC Rasmussen: McCain 48, Obama 45

It’s more official than ever: the Tar Heel State is a legitimate battleground:

The race is still close between John McCain and Barack Obama in the traditionally red state of North Carolina. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 45% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. When “leaners” are included, McCain leads 48% to 45%.

This represents a statistically insignificant change from last poll, which had McCain up 2 points (note: Bush won the state in 2004 56-44). Some interesting cross-tabs show room for growth for Obama as well:

In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%.

McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women.

Now, I don’t doubt that many Democrats in North Carolina are effectively Republicans, but for Obama to get the support of only 69% of Democrats suggest there is room for growth.

As always, the question is can Obama expand the universe of voters to overcome this small polling gap? Let’s not get our hopes up, Obama has yet to get over 45 in any NC poll, but it’s certainly close enough to invest real resources (and make McCain do the same).

One sign that Tar Heel voters are ready for change:

Four years ago, President Bush won the Tar Heel State handedly. Now, just 33% of the state’s voters think the President is doing a good or excellent job. Nearly half (48%) say he is doing a poor job.

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July 17, 2008 - Posted by | Battleground States, Uncategorized | ,

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