Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

If You Believe in Tracking Polls, This Is A Relief

After news this morning that McCain overtook Obama in the Rasmussen for the first time, today’s Gallup tracking poll comes as a sigh of relief:

Obama 46
McCain 43

The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.

I know, I know, tracking polls are terrible, just sayin’…

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August 4, 2008 - Posted by | foreign policy, Polling |

2 Comments »

  1. Tracking polls don’t mean much. But it also means that the supposed McCain “bounce” that he’s getting off of these negative ads doesn’t really exist either, since it was almost entirely from the tracking polls.

    It’s also important to note that the tracking polls usually have Obama about 4 points behind where the other national polls have him.

    Comment by smashartist | August 4, 2008 | Reply

  2. To be fair, battleground polls showed a tightening. I think this may have been the best week McCain will have had.

    Comment by dansac | August 4, 2008 | Reply


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