Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

It Was Funny, Now It’s Surreal

The Philly Daily News has an article out this morning about a new Franklin & Marshall poll showing Obama up by 8 amongst registered voters, and up by 5 among “likely” voters. The entire article then goes on to explain what’s wrong with Obama to explain this result:

Poll director Terry Madonna said that the survey shows that Obama hasn’t been able to pull away despite signs it should be a big Democratic year in Pennsylvania.

“He’s on third base, but so far he can’t seem to find a way to get home,” Madonna said. “Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush’s ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama’s experience, and don’t yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead.”

Indeed, the headline itself it: “Obama leads in PA., but not by much.” Hey guys, John Kerry beat Bush in PA in 2004 by 2 points! A 5-8 point victory for Obama would be close to verging on landslide territory, if not a very decisive win.

The spin of sizable leads as bad news for Obama was unusual at first, funny second, but now we’re just entering the Twilight Zone.

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August 13, 2008 - Posted by | Battleground States, Polling | ,

7 Comments »

  1. Dan–that was the electoral vote–what was the poll margin for Kerry v. Bush in PA?

    Comment by slinkerwink | August 13, 2008 | Reply

  2. Sorry, not sure I understand – Kerry won 51% of the actual vote in PA to Bush’s 49%.

    Comment by dansac | August 13, 2008 | Reply

  3. My point, dan, is that the correlation you’re making here–the actual electoral vote margin to a poll margin does not hold up. It’d be better if you could cite what Kerry was polling in PA at this point against George Bush.

    Comment by slinkerwink | August 13, 2008 | Reply

  4. Ah, got it – give me a little time – have some work to do and have a diary over at DKos now, but will try to track that down.

    Comment by dansac | August 13, 2008 | Reply

  5. Dansac–

    Just found this poll, which was cited by Ruy Teixeria on his blog in 2004 below:

    Pennsylvania Poll Shows Kerry Holding Lead

    A Quinnipiac University poll released on August 18th shows Democratic challenger John Kerry holding a 47 � 42 percent lead over President George W. Bush among Pennsylvania voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader.

    Military veterans or voters with a household member who is a veteran or currently in active duty or reserve service support Kerry 46 � 42 percent, with 6 percent for Nader. These voters from military families say 54 � 41 percent that the war is wrong.

    “Despite a month of relentless campaigning by the Republican and Democratic camps in Pennsylvania, the presidential horse race remains virtually the same” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

    “In what may prove to be damaging news for the President, the anti-war attitude among voters from military households in Pennsylvania is greater than the attitude among all voters. Kerry hold the same slim lead among these voters that he has among the electorate in general,” Richards added.

    Comment by slinkerwink | August 13, 2008 | Reply

  6. Slink- It’s funny to read the spin from the pollster. Kerry being up by 5 was great news for Kerry, but Obama being up by 8 is bad news for Obama.

    Comment by smashartist | August 13, 2008 | Reply

  7. I just saw a Gallup poll taken right before the election that had Bush up 4 amongst LV but Kerry up 2 amongst registered. Things definitely tightened, but a win’s a win.

    Comment by dansac | August 13, 2008 | Reply


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