Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

Breaking: Women Not Idiots

McCain’s pick of the former mayor from a town of about 8000 was about as cynical a strategy as can be imagined in recent history. With Obama getting a nice bump out of his convention, McCain clearly saw the writing on the wall:

Let’s stop pretending this race is as close as national polling suggests. The truth is McCain is essentially tied or trailing in every swing state that matters — and too close for comfort in several states like Indiana and Montana the GOP usually wins pretty easily in presidential races. On top of that, voters seem very inclined to elect Democrats in general this election — and very sick of the Bush years.

McCain could easily lose in an electoral landslide. That is the private view of Democrats and Republicans alike.

McCain’s pick shows he is not pretending. Politicians, even “mavericks” like McCain, play it safe when they think they are winning — or see an easy path to winning. They roll the dice only when they know that the risks of conventionality are greater than the risks of boldness.

So he decided to throw the deep pass, hoping that picking Sarah Palin would open the door to women in general, and unhappy Hillary supporters in particular. Take a listen to her transparent pander to those voters at yesterday’s rally:

Oops, that’s Gov. Palin calling Hillary a whiner. Sorry about that. Anyway, at yesterday’s rally, she made a transparent play to Hillary voters, essentially saying, “thanks for all of the chips in the glass ceiling, but I’ll take it from here.

Unfortunately for McCain and Palin, women are not as gullible as they seem to think they are:

What’s interesting, however, is that while there is a gender gap in these numbers, it’s not the one many observers were anticipating. Rather, along a variety of metrics, men like the Palin choice better than women:

poll

These numbers pretty much speak for themselves, but men have a favorable imperssion of Palin by a 35-point margin, whereas women have a favorable impression of her by an 18-point margin. Conversely, by a 23-point margin, women do not think Palin is ready to be President, whereas Palin lost this question among men by a considerably smaller 6-point magrin.

A nice attempt at a pander for McCain, but as of yet, no cigar.

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August 30, 2008 - Posted by | Battleground States, Media Strategy, Polling, Veepstakes | , , , , , ,

5 Comments »

  1. I say this as someone who thinks this was an insulting choice: we still can’t underestimate her.

    She’s probably a pretty capable person and with her union background, she might be able to make in-roads via personal connection in places like Ohio, Michigan, and PA. Also, her NRA status will help in places like MT, and her religiosity will gin up the winguts of Colorado.

    The bar is going to be set ridiculously low for her, and she’ll probably be studying fast and furious now to easily exceed that bar.

    I’d love to see her fall on her face, but let’s not assume it will happen. We have to be smart and effective about this.

    Comment by dansac | August 30, 2008 | Reply

  2. I think getting her extremist views out there will help a lot. She is opposed to birth control and condoms for even married couples? Insane.

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/08/30/worst_pick_ever.html

    Comment by turneresq | August 30, 2008 | Reply

  3. Biden should chew her up and spit her out at their debate. He should not go easy on her because she’s a woman. If she really wants this position she’s got to earn it and earn the trust of the American people. She is not running for Student Council here.

    Comment by robrubin | August 30, 2008 | Reply

  4. The only thing the polls seem to show is that men like a good rack.. Otherwise there are certainly a lot of women in the undecided column on this issue, perhaps analysis is a bit premature?

    Comment by Harry Palms | September 1, 2008 | Reply

  5. The true writing on the wall is that Obama is NOT representing himself for what he really stands for =====

    Obama,

    You are the first candidate the U.S. has had in a long time that has continued to spread false information from the first time you hit the campaign trail.

    I find your technique one of the most offensive I have ever experienced. I find your ethics are on the border of being unethical and your manipulation of the facts most disgusting.

    It is common knowledge that the media will always press United States citizens to vote for the candidate who offers them the biggest kick-backs, pay-backs, and over-all “favors”. That is you, Obama.

    Then look at your over all personas: Your stance, the way you hold your head, your gestures, the clothes you wear, the pronouns and adjectives you use. Everything about you is the personification of an individual, who does NOT, let me repeat DOES NOT, have the United States citizens interests’ at heart. You are an elitist and the persona I just described is living proof — your entire appearance is proof — FACT — of what I say.

    Okay – now let’s talk about education. You have a law degree but did not practice law. Why? Readers – look this one up and you will see why. And, the result is not a positive one.

    Then there is the community organizer work you undertook in the state of Illinois. That, too, has been overstated and turned into something “positive” that it in fact was NOT. Dear readers – check this one out yourself as there are many Illinois citizens who will tell you the “truth.”

    My education – NOBAMA – is equal to or greater than your education. I do have the same ability as you to influence U.S. Citizens: And I certainly am taking the opportunity to exploit you for what you truly are.

    You see I am an educator, who works for a famous “Research One” institution, who has the ability to write Journal Articles that all college students will use for research. The true facts about you will come out and in a place that will most definitely do the most good – to influence voters “young voters” on how to spot an individual who does not represent the United States in the capacity as he states he will. Make no mistake, Obama, people will definitely know the subject of the Journal Articles is referencing you and your 2008 Presidential campaign.

    See you in “honest” fact-finding print.

    Comment by Versailles | October 4, 2008 | Reply


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