Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

A Prediction

After extensive training, Sarah Palin is going to give a serious-sounding, policy-heavy speech tonight. She will acknowledge her background isn’t the most conventional, but then pivot into some major details. She will discuss foreign policy a bit. She will talk about the need for reform, change, and competent government that “takes on the system.” The speech will be tailored to swing voters, and light on social conservative red meat.

The press, now feeling guilty at how tough they went after Palin (see: Mika B. brow-beaten by Halperin and Scarborough this morning into admitting the press is liberal and sexist), will swing their pendulum the other way go gaga and declare her an enormous success, qualified for the Presidency.

Just a prediction.


September 3, 2008 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , ,


  1. Yep, that’s what is going to happen. We have to find the right way to frame this setting of expectations for Mrs. Palin.

    Comment by slinkerwink | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  2. Good. Let her go on and on about all the failed policies of the Bush administration. 😉

    Vote For The Ticket Of McCain and Palin
    Vote For More Of The Same Old Failings

    Comment by EvilPoet | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  3. I’m not so sure. Palin is there for one reason only: to appeal to social conservatives. So I think she’ll give them red meat and do it well; she seems to be a good speaker and the pundits will like her speech. Policy wise, I can’t see there being anything there that will stand scrutiny by network fact checkers. And I honestly don’t think there will be any policy talk in the speech at all. As Rick Davis said, it’s not about the issues for the GOP.

    They know they have to run on bullshit and identity politics. Trying to sell substantive policies only plays into the Dems’ hands.

    Comment by Alex | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  4. I’m also hopeful that the media will realize that a speech is not exactly the best test of Palin’s know-how. After days and days in which she’s been hidden from the press, they’re going to want a press conference or interviews.

    Slightly off-topic: the utter contempt that McCain and his ilk holds for Obama’s abilities (“empty suit”, “good with a teleprompter”) will be their undoing. They continue to underestimate him, and the debates will be a shock to the system.

    Comment by Alex | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  5. Well, maybe Palin will speak of what kind of policies they will bring or maybe not, but I am sure she will do fine. In addition, McSurge sure hasn’t said anythning about what “changes” he will bring.

    Comment by trellskig | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  6. Palin will give a moderate speech. She has conservatives locked up and this may be her only chance before the debates for moderates to hear her.

    Her speech will go fine, it’s being written by the best of Bush’s staff and she has been coached now for 4 days.

    The media will eat it up and talk about how the big risk of McCain paid off.

    The question is, will the scandals follow Palin AFTER the speech or will they die as a result of her success at the convention. We know what the Republicans are hoping. I hope America and the MSM demand a more thorough vetting than 4 days.

    At first, I thought Palin was a joke and a huge mistake for McCain. The more I learn about Palin, the more I become concerned that this ruthless, calculating and ambitious woman may end up having the last laugh.

    Comment by Billy | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  7. I agree. It will be a very safe speech and the media will go easy on her. She’ll do well enough to please the McCain camp, but not well enough to woo in the swing voters. And if she does relatively well, that only means the bar will be raised for the debate…making it even more likely that she’ll fall flat on her face. Regardless of republican spin, this is a doomed ticket.

    Comment by rcbr | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  8. Geez, and here I was hoping she’d get up there and cry about how mean those nasty media people have been to her. My version goes like this.
    “Oh those awful media type people, they just have it all wrong. It’s not my husband’s involvement in Alaskans for Independence that was significant to me, it was mine. I had to quit my beloved AIP in order to join the GOP(whose values I deplore) because I wanted to be govenor. An then that nice, wrinkly old man say hey, come and be my Vice President and even though I’m not at all sure what a VP does I thought, sure, why not? I get to be on the cover of magazines and have my picture taken… and I do so LOVE having my picture taken! So thank you to the Academy I’d like my gold statue now!!!!”
    It’d be the best speech at that ridiculous convention.

    Comment by dp in PHX | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  9. If the heavy-handed political moves now under investigation don’t get her, her far-right fundamentalist policies will. Palin is a very good example of why religious fundamentalists make bad leaders. As Governor of Alaska, Palin has opposed any form of sex education other than that sanctioned by her religious beliefs, abstinence only, which science has shown does not work to prevent unwanted pregnancies. She apparently imposed this policy in her own home, forcing her family to face the consequences, and that is certainly her right. However, to ignore the science and prevent all teenagers in the public schools of her state from receiving sex education proven to help prevent unwanted pregnancies, simply because of her own religious beliefs, is grossly irresponsible for any leader, woman or man.

    This is doubly so for one who also favors overturning Roe v. Wade, again on religious grounds. Palin’s position would force those children to keep the offspring of the unwanted pregnancies that her fundamentalist-inspired policies actually encouraged. This is the type of damaging leadership a modern United States can do without, and the vast majority of Americans will figure that out by the weekend. Because she’s a darling of the far right, she won’t be dropped from the ticket, but this race is essentially over.

    Comment by Ken | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  10. If that’s what they do (and I think you’re probably right on both counts: that it will be a decent speech and the press will go gaga), that’s great. Raise the bar for her debate with Biden. Redeem her a bit. Keep her on the ticket. Most Americans aren’t watching this convention, and they won’t care about her speech – but if the media begins playing up the VP debate like it might be a battle of equals, then we’re in good shape.

    Comment by zenbowl | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  11. I think the media don’t have low expectations. The public may, but Saturday’s speech was superficially okay (I hated it, but I’m cynical). I don’t think Obama’s campaign has low expectations either. The main thing is that the Obama campaign doesn’t want to talk about Palin, and they don’t want the campaign to be about Palin. They will use Palin to fire up our base (remember, we DO have a base too) but otherwise keep the focus on McCain.

    Comment by Bahrad | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  12. Why can’t Obama announce that Hillary will have an important roll in his administration if he is elected president. That will take the wind out of the “freshness” of mrs Palin

    Comment by Mimi | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  13. I’m Canadian, I’m not voting in 2 months, but I sure hope Ken (comment # 9) is right. And Mimi (# 12): good idea, and it would get your vote!

    Comment by Peter Bratton | September 3, 2008 | Reply

  14. My Prediction —


    You are the first candidate the U.S. has had in a long time that has continued to spread false information from the first time you hit the campaign trail.

    I find your technique one of the most offensive I have ever experienced. I find your ethics are on the border of being unethical and your manipulation of the facts most disgusting.

    It is common knowledge that the media will always press United States citizens to vote for the candidate who offers them the biggest kick-backs, pay-backs, and over-all “favors”. That is you, Obama.

    Then look at your over all personas: Your stance, the way you hold your head, your gestures, the clothes you wear, the pronouns and adjectives you use. Everything about you is the personification of an individual, who does NOT, let me repeat DOES NOT, have the United States citizens interests’ at heart. You are an elitist and the persona I just described is living proof — your entire appearance is proof — FACT — of what I say.

    Okay – now let’s talk about education. You have a law degree but did not practice law. Why? Readers – look this one up and you will see why. And, the result is not a positive one.

    Then there is the community organizer work you undertook in the state of Illinois. That, too, has been overstated and turned into something “positive” that it in fact was NOT. Dear readers – check this one out yourself as there are many Illinois citizens who will tell you the “truth.”

    My education – NOBAMA – is equal to or greater than your education. I do have the same ability as you to influence U.S. Citizens: And I certainly am taking the opportunity to exploit you for what you truly are.

    You see I am an educator, who works for a famous “Research One” institution, who has the ability to write Journal Articles that all college students will use for research. The true facts about you will come out and in a place that will most definitely do the most good – to influence voters “young voters” on how to spot an individual who does not represent the United States in the capacity as he states he will. Make no mistake, Obama, people will definitely know the subject of the Journal Articles is referencing you and your 2008 Presidential campaign.

    See you in “honest” fact-finding print.

    Comment by Versailles | October 4, 2008 | Reply

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