Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

Did the Dam Just Break?

Item: John McCain’s pushes back (declares war?) on the New York Times for their report on Rick Davis’ connections with Fannie and Freddie. McCain goes on CNBC and denies that Davis had any dealings with Fannie or Freddie. And breaking tonight Newsweek and the Times drop bombshells, flatly contradicting McCain. The criticism starts in earnest.

Item: The continued sheltering of Sarah Palin reaches a high (low?) point, as the McCain camp attempts to prevent reporters from being in the room as Gov. Palin meets with various world leaders. CNN threatens to pull its reporters, and the McCain camp relents…for all of 29 seconds. Campbell Brown launches a blistering editorial, accusing the McCain camp of sexism for not allowing Gov. Palin to answer questions.

Item: National tracking polls have trended in Obama’s direction after McCain received a decent bounce after his convention. State polling in key states (with a few exceptions) have begun to move Obama’s way as well, with Florida and Virginia in particular looking evermore promising. And breaking tonight we have a bombshell of an ABC poll which will have the chattering class talking tomorrow:

ABC/WaPo, 9/22 (9/7) Likely Voters, Moe +/- 3

Obama 52 (47)
McCain 43 (49)

Now, the last time Obama had such a large lead over McCain (Newsweek), it was called an outlier. Which was probably true as it was recently after Obama clinching. And really, a national poll in June is pretty worthless. But this convergence of events, combined with the economic issues has clearly gotten Obama a bounce. Is Obama up by nine at this point? Who knows, but media narrative is important. And McCain’s recent mistakes (you think that NYT/Newsweek story won’t end up in an ad?) combined with Obama’s steady presence is surely moving the numbers now.

So, is the race over? Obviously not. We’ve got six weeks to go, during which time there are four debates and any number of factors that could sway the race one way or the other. But considering where we were two weeks ago coming out of the GOP convention, it’s amazing to see how things can change in a split-second. So enjoy the momentum, and keep working to ensure that we get to where we want to be.


September 24, 2008 - Posted by | Battleground States, Economy, Media Strategy, Polling | , , , , , , ,

1 Comment »

  1. I continue to urge caution and hard work, and there will be many more twists and turns in this election (debates? future gaffes? the bailouts? the re-emergence of Rev. Wright in McCain ads?).

    Having said that, I’d rather be us than them.

    Comment by dansac | September 24, 2008 | Reply

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