Strategy ’08

Obama vs. the other guy, 2008

McCain Bailing on Michigan


Big news on the campaign front:

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

McCain’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans had been bullish on Michigan, hopeful that McCain’s past success in the state in the 2000 primary combined with voter dissatisfaction with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and skepticism among blue-collar voters about Barack Obama could make it competitive.

Aside from Pennsylvania, Michigan was high on McCain’s list of blue states that they’d hoped to poach. Bailing on Michigan means that McCain will likely be playing defense for the remainder of the election. I’d expect them to move to Pennsylvania as the state they most hope to flip, but polling there has also been moving in Obama’s direction. The battleground is shrinking…for McCain.


October 2, 2008 - Posted by | Battleground States, Polling | , , , ,


  1. Wow, this is huge. I never thought he had a great shot in MI/PA, but I always figured MI was more likely to flip. (As for WI, please!)

    When you consider that IA/NM are looking increasingly likely to flip, that basically leaves McCain playing D in OH/FL/NV/VA/CO/NC, and needing to hold just about every one of them.

    Comment by GDH1 | October 2, 2008 | Reply

  2. It’s going to become all about PA soon. He is going to invest massively there. If he can’t flip PA he’s got big problems.

    Comment by dansac | October 2, 2008 | Reply

  3. McCain and Obama are pulling out of Missoura as well, why?

    Comment by trellskig | October 2, 2008 | Reply

  4. trellskig: I’ve not heard about leaving Missouri. In fact, recent polling has Obama even.

    Comment by turneresq | October 2, 2008 | Reply

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